Group 1 Spring Champion
The track
It’s been posted early as a Heavy 8, and with some showers around I’m doing the the form for a Heavy track.
The speed
The pace is slow here and there are no real natural leaders. I’m thinking Sharp ‘N’ Smart and Matcha Latte will try to cross from out wide. Promitto, Bunker Hut and Elliptical get nice runs in behind the speed, as does She’s Extreme.
Runner-by-runner
1 Elliptical [$4.00] ran second in the Caulfield Guineas. He’ll settle midfield. He’s probably just a touch short in the market for me at the moment.
4 Williamsburg [$5.00] was the one coming on strong late in the key lead-up, the Gloaming Stakes. My only concern – as always – is just that: he’ll be back in the field and running on, so will need luck.
3 Sharp ‘N’ Smart [$6.50] won the Gloaming so is certainly in this. Unfortunately she has an awkward draw here (Barrier 8), which will makes things tough early.
11 She’s Extreme [$6.00] will settle forward here and gets a great run on the map. She’s a big chance for mine.
2 Promitto [$6.50] ran against the older horses at WFA last week and wasn’t disgraced. This is just a small step-up from 1800m to 2000m, and he’ll be forward in the run. He’s a chance.
12 Renaissance Woman [$11] is another back marker, which is the concern, but we know she runs out the 2000m so she’s a chance.
5 Matcha Latte [$13] ran second to Sharp ‘N’ Smart in the Gloaming last start and is a chance here.
From there this race has a pretty long tail… I don’t give the rest much of a chance: 7 Conqueror [$21], 9 Manzoice [$31], 6 Owen County [$61], 10 Bunker Hut [$61] and 8 Coppleson [$61]
Betting strategy
Two-horse strategy:
She’s Extreme
Williamsburg
This is a challenging race! The majority are tackling the distance for the first time, and seven of them bring in very similar ratings. I’m leaning towards She’s Extreme as she will be forward in the run. If you are happy to risk a backmarker, then have something on Williamsburg too… he’s a big chance to run them down.
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