The track
It’s a Soft 6 early and they are predicting plenty of rain on Tuesday, so we have to predict a soft-heavy track.
The speed
This looks to be very genuinely run. The speed has drawn wide so they’ll want to push forward from the barriers and take up a forward position before the first turn. That will inject plenty of speed into the race.
Runner-by-runner
8 Deauville Legend [$3.60] won easily last start, beating El Bodegon which ran third in the Cox Plate. Based on ratings I’ve got it favourite but just a bit longer than the market. I found it hard to get as short as it is. I’ll see what price it gets to and will probably end up betting around it.
6 Without A Fight [$10] would need to go significantly better than it has previously to be a threat here. I’m happy to oppose it.
4 Montefilia [$11] was good in the Caulfield Cup without much luck. It’s a nice stayer and will be strong late. The tempo should suit.
24 Realm Of Flowers [$11] ran alright last start in Sydney then was scratched from Saturday. Only a rough chance for mine.
3 Knights Order [$13] will come across and lead with Serpentine. It’s honest and will run the trip. I have it slight overs.
12 Hoo Ya Mal [$15] ran well in the Epsom Derby at 150/1. Next start it ran third behind Deauville Legend, only a neck behind it. They settled together and both finished well. I think it’s well over the odds here and good value.
19 Smokin’ Romans [$17] was good winning the Turnbull, but didn’t really finish off in the Caulfield Cup. Gets Jamie Kah here and will be on the pace, and Maher / Eustace are great trainers of stayers. I’m happy to be on, slight overs.
1 Gold Trip [$18] I have around the market price. It was good in the Caulfield Cup and wasn’t really suited in the Cox Plate, with not much luck. It’s only won one race in its career and has the top weight, however.
2 Duais [$21] is overs in my opinions.She wants a fast-run race and should get it here. Her last few starts have been slowly-run which haven’t suited. She still worked home well and is a likely improver for me.
18 Lunar Flare [$21] is going well this prep, running home well in the Moonee Valley Cup for second. I have her just slightly longer than the market.
9 Stockman [$23] has been going okay but is backing up from Sydney on Saturday. It’s a big task. Happy to oppose.
10 Vow And Declare [$26] is going okay but hasn’t gone anything like it did when it won the Cup in 2019. I’ve got it much longer than the market.
17 Emissary [$31] would really appeal if the track was dry. I thought it was super in the Geelong Cup. I still think it’s value, but all its best runs are on dry tracks.
22 High Emocean [$31] is backing up from the Bendigo Cup. I’ve got it around the market price. Rough chance.
11 Young Werther [$34] will probably have to go forward from the barrier. It only beat a few home in the Cox Plate. I’m happy to oppose it.
14 Daqiansweet Junior [$41] won the Adelaide Cup but its best form is on dry tracks. Rough chance.
5 Numerian [$51] ran okay in the Caulfield Cup, putting up a decent figure. I’d want good odds to back it here however.
7 Camorra [$51] seems a bit of an inconsistent type. Gets a good rider in Melham but I’d want better odds to be on it.
23 Interpretation [$51] can race on the pace. The market has liked it since it came to Australia. It hasn’t had much luck. It’s won on the wet in Ireland and can settle forward. I think there’s value here.
13 Serpentine [$61] is on the quick back-up from Saturday. I’d be surprised if it threatened.
15 Grand Promenade [$61] ran sixth in the Cup last year, albeit beaten 12 lengths. He’s not going anywhere near as well this time in. A very long shot.
16 Arapaho [$61] has consistent ratings although they’re not that great. I have it around the market price.
20 Tralee Rose [$61] is not good enough to figure here.
Betting strategy
Best Bet Hoo Ya Mal
Value picks Smokin Romans, Duais, Emissary, Interpretation
I have Hoo Ya Mal as my main hope and I think he’s a lot closer to Deauville Legend than the market indicates. I’ll be backing him, as well as some others.
I’ll split my stake up and cover those that I think are value, which I like to do in these big fields. I don’t mind betting that way as you’re not outlaying a lot of money and can get a good return. I’m happy to play the value, spec a few in the race and hope that Deauville Legend doesn’t win!
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