Champions Stakes
The track
It’s raced quite well so far this week. The rail will go out again to cover the wear on the inside and they’ll get out a bit further if they need to. In the races up the straight, they’ll move away from the inside of track. It’s very similar to how it plays most years.
The speed
There’s not much pace here. Zaaki will lead and Anamoe and Hinged will be next. I’m Thunderstruck gets back.
Runner-by-runner
7 Anamoe [$1.90] is the star coming off the Cox Plate win. He maps well here but not I’m not sure he has another level to go to beyond the Cox Plate – a lot went right for him there. He’s the horse to beat but I think he’s a bit short here.
1 I’m Thunderstruck [$4.40] is racing well and put in a terrific effort in the Cox Plate with an interrupted run. He’s better suited here on the big track and will be charging late. A terrific chance.
2 Zaaki [$8.00] is racing consistently but is not quite doing what he was doing at his best. He looks to get an easy lead here and has run well at this track and distance in the past. Wouldn’t surprise.
3 Mo’unga [$12] is racing well and this trip suits. He’ll get back but be charging home late. He’s a chance at double figure odds.
10 Elliptical [$12] is a three-year-old who is racing well but I’m not sure he has another level to go to here. He would need a few of the favourites to fall and is entitled to be decent odds.
8 Hinged [$21] is racing well and maps well here. She’s another who would need a few of the favourites to fall over to be a chance.
I don’t think the rest measure up to the top chances here: 11 Mr Maestro [$21], 4 Maximal [$51], 9 Mustang Valley [$41], 6 Bankers Choice [$81], 5 Hezashocka [$151].
Betting strategy
Best Bet I’m Thunderstruck
Anamoe deserves to be favourite but I can’t have him as short as the market does – on my figures I’m Thunderstruck is the better bet. You could argue that with a bit more going right, he could have won the Cox Plate. He’s the bet here for me.
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