Cranbourne Cup
The track
The rail is out 3 metres, which is fine. The way the track plays just depends on the weather. There’s some rain predicted in the lead-up, but it’s probably not enough to cause any major issues.
The speed
The pace is really good. No Surrender goes forward with No Effort, Buffalo River and Crosshaven also pushing up on the pace. It’ll be genuinely run.
Runner-by-runner
6 Uncle Bryn [$4.60] put in a terrific effort to win the Sale Cup. He runs his best with a genuine tempo, which he gets here. He also gets Zahra on. He’s on the quick backup which is a big positive with this stable. Definitely the horse to beat.
9 Visinari [$4.80] is one where it’s hard to know where he’s at. He looked unimpressive winning first-up at Flemington and isn’t going as well as last prep. He has some chance if he’s running at his best, but I’m not sure he is.
5 Our Playboy [$6.50] is fourth-up now and should be fully fit. He ran well in this race last year. He can settle handy from the inside barrier and is a good chance.
2 Just Folk [$9.00] is racing well and ran to his absolute best last start. The inside barrier allows him to settle handier here. The only thing I’d say is he needs genuine give in the track to show his best.
7 Ironclad [$10] put in a good effort first-up at Flemington. He’ll get back here and will be running on. He’s some chance.
11 Belle Plaisir [$10] is racing well and put in a good effort in the Empire Rose. She gets Williams on here and can settle just behind the pace. She’s a good chance.
4 Buffalo River [$11] is an honest horse but finds it hard to win. There’s a lot of pace in this race and he’s only a rough chance.
1 Callsign Mav [$12] ran well three starts back over 1400m, winning the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke. He’s had excuses at his past couple of runs. He can race up on the pace and has a good chance here.
14 Flash Aah [$16] was well beaten by Uncle Bryn in the Sale Cup. It’s hard to see him turning the tables on that here.
10 No Effort [$17] is resuming off 77 days. She’s a good mare but that’s a huge task.
8 Crosshaven [$19] is drawn out wide in a race where there looks to be a lot of speed. He’s a very rough chance.
13 Lightsaber [$21] is struggling to get back to his three-year-old form. There’s good pace here and he’s only a rough chance.
12 So Si Bon [$26] hasn’t won for a very long time.
3 Buckhurst [$31] and 15 No Surrender [$31] aren’t good enough to win this.
Betting strategy
Best bet Uncle Bryn
I’m on him here, he ticks a hell of a lot of boxes. The likely tempo suits him, he gets Zahra on and the stable has terrific stats when backing them up off seven days.
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