Group 2 Expressway Stakes (Rosehill)
The track
It’s a Soft 7 early and shouldn’t change too much – I’m working off a slow track.
The speed
The speed is just average here. Much Much Better will try and come across and lead, though Kahawaty and Forbidden Love may hold it out. Mariamia can come across and settle behind the leaders. Golden Mile can sit midfield.
Runner-by-runner
9 Golden Mile [$2.20] is the three-year-old with upside and the winner of the Caulfield Guineas. He’s first-up here, if he’s ready to go then he’ll be hard to beat
4 Forbidden Love [$2.80] has produced her best ratings on a heavy track. I don’t think it will be that wet here.
5 Mariamia [$4.20] was brilliant when winning first-up. If she can replicate that she’ll be hard to beat
3 Pizarro [$10] has got a big step-up to make here, it’s the first Group race that he will have contested.
1 Nicolini Vito [$20] would really surprise if he came out and won this.
I don’t think the rest are up to winning this: 7 Kahawaty [$61], 2 Much Much Better [$61], 6 Van Giz [$67], 8 Twice As Special [$101].
Betting strategy
Best Bet Mariamia
This is a small field but an intriguing one. We have two returning Group 1 winners (the last two Expressway winners were first-up), plus Mariamia coming off a peak figure last start. Golden Mile has the upside in the race, and late market moves and the mounting yard will be vital for both him and Forbidden Love.
I probably don’t want to play that short, so I am going to go with Mariamia at the better odds. She was brilliant last start – if she can hold that figure she’ll be hard to beat.
Group 2 Australia Stakes (Moonee Valley)
The track
The track should be fine, there’s no weather issues to speak of. It played fair last week and should be the same here.
The speed
Jigsaw and Snapper will lead here. Turaath and Beau Rossa have also gone forward in the past, so they may put some pressure on.
Runner-by-runner
5 Jigsaw [$3.00] is racing terrifically and is unbeaten this prep. He steps up to 1200m and looks one of the two leaders. If the two of them just dictate and don’t take each other on, then he’s the horse to beat.
6 Snapper [$4.00] is going very well and races really well here at the track and distance. He’s the other leader and again, as long as they don’t go at breakneck speed and tire each other, they should dictate.
8 Turaath [$5.50] resumes off a spell. She was good second-up last prep. She can run on here, but it’s been a while since she’s put in a really big run – she just hasn’t returned to her previous highs in some time.
4 Beau Rossa [$8.00] is a dual acceptor. He’s resuming off 49 days, can run well fresh and should be able to go forward.
7 Calypso Reign [$8.50] is a consistent horse who is resuming here with Williams on. He just might get a bit far back.
3 Ironclad [$10] is another that’s dual accepted here and is resuming off 42 days. He would prefer a bit further.
2 Western Empire [$12] didn’t come up in the spring and has changed stables since. He was well beaten first-up down the straight. I’m happy to just watch him.
1 Superstorm [$15] is another I’m happy just to watch. He’s first-up for 448 days and is better over further.
Betting strategy
Top pick Jigsaw
Value bet Beau Rossa
As I said, Jigsaw and Snapper are the two natural leaders and provided they don’t go really hard against each other, should just be able to dictate. If Beau Rossa run and can go forward, he’s some chance of causing an upset.
Good luck!
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