Group 3 Eskimo Prince Stakes (1200m)
It’s been given out as Soft 6 early, but with drying weather by race time I would say it’ll be in the good range. That’s what I’m preparing for.
The speed
The speed is just average here. I’ve got Zou Tiger to lead, with Capitol Queen and Toronomic to try and cross from outside gates. Communist, Aft Cabin and Osipenko settle midfield, while Sejarden will likely settle near last.
3 Aft Cabin [$1.95] encounters drying weather, so it will be interesting to see how he goes in the dry. He’s a deserving favoruite but very short.
8 Zou Tiger [$3.30] will be the leader and gets a nice run in the race.
5 Osipenko [$7.50] won over 1300 metres as a two-year-old, but I think he’ll be looking for longer.
1 Sejardan [$13] will settle back in the field, so track pattern will be important.
6 Communist [$15] is another that will be looking for further later on in his prep.
9 Toronomica [$26] has a big step up in grade here which will be very tough.
10 Capitol Queen [$26] is also stepping right up, from a maiden to a Group 3. That’s a big task.
4 Wolverine [$26] will need to improve to beat these.
2 Williamsburg [$41] will also want further this prep.
7 Brosnan [$41] is just not at the level… I highly doubt he’ll bother these.
Betting strategy
Any yard information is going to be a key to this race, with the majority returning from spells ready for their Autumn campaign. I think Aft Cabin and Zou Tiger certainly deserve to be 1 and 2 in the betting, I have them that way… but are very well found early.
If there is any sign that you can run on I would prefer to take Sejardan on an each-way basis. I will concede the top two will be hard to beat. It’s just a price based decision.
Group 2 Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes (1300m)
The track
The track should be okay but it’s a bit of a wait-and-see. There’s a fair bit of rain predicted in the lead-up so we’ll see exactly where it lands… but you’d think it’ll be a Soft 5 at worst, so shouldn’t be too bad.
The speed
There are no real natural leaders, but the pace is okay nonetheless. Diamonds Inthe Sky goes forward and Wrote To Ataki went forward last start with success, so might do again. They’re both outside which should make the early pace genuine.
Runner-by-runner
11 Snapped [$4.00] put in a good effort resuming over the 1000m, then was unlucky when beaten in Sydney last start. She’s out in trip here which doesn’t look a negative, she has a good draw and gets Zahra on. Good chance.
4 Rose Quartz [$4.60] is racing well. She wasn’t suited last start when she just couldn’t get to the right part of the track. She maps to get a good run here on the pace.
10 Wrote To Arataki [$5.00] had been running on well prior to last start, then she led and walked in last start. She’s drawn out here with not a lot of pace in the race, so I’m thinking she can get across and prove hard to beat.
7 Belle Et Riche [$6.00] put in a good effort at Flemington, running to an equal best. Her draw is a little sticky, so she’ll will need the speed to be on to repeat that.
2 Vespertine [$7.50] was terrific two starts back, then not suited last start off a short break. This trip suits but with the wide draw she’ll get back, and will need the speed on.
1 Excelida [$11] resumes here from a spell. She went out at a career peak last start which is a good sign, but generally it takes her a run to get back to her peak.
8 Forbidden City [$14] was terrific two starts back at The Valley, then settled a bit far back last start. She ran on okay but wasn’t suited. She can improve off that here.
5 Diamonds Inthe Sky [$19] ran to her best two starts back at this track and distance, but I’m not sure if that’s good enough here.
12 Sonora [$31] is racing well, but it’s hard to see her making the jump from BM64 to this.
9 Dazzling Lucy [$34] put in a good effort at The Valley two starts back, then appeared to have every chance last start. She’s back in distance here. Prefer others.
3 Watch Me Dance [$101] put in a bit of a hidden run last start. She had to get a long way back from the barrier but made ground late. She has a better draw here so can sit handier. Rough chance.
13 Passione [$91], 6 Standoff [$101] and 14 Miltida [$101] aren’t going well enough to figure here.
Betting strategy
Rose Quartz is racing well and maps to get a much better run here… she looks the bet to me.
Good luck!
Our Racing preview is brought to you by Champion Bets, established in 2006 to provide tips, analysis and education for Australian punters.
Their modellers study every statistic and every market on every game to bet across Head-to-head, Lines, Totals and Player props, by incorporating player ratings and up-to-the-minute data weather to maintain an edge on the market.
