Hawkesbury Gold Cup
The speed
The speed is above average. There’s plenty who’ll be taking it up: Hosier, Hopeful, Kiss the Bride and Wild Chap. JoJo Was A Man should be behind the lead pack in the running line. Floating Artist will be back in the run.
Runner-by-runner
3 Floating Artist [$3.60] put in a solid run first-up off 515 days off, at an unsuitable distance. He should be better today.
10 Lord Ardmore [$7.00] will be looking for slightly further than this.
8 New Mandate [$7.50] is dual-nominated in Brisbane and may well not run here.
4 Just Folk [$9.00] comes into this third-up and should be near peak fitness.
7 Hopeful [$9.00] is kicking off his second prep in Australia and will be looking for longer.
12 Hosier [$11] was disappointing first-up and will need to improve.
9 Jojo Was A Man [$14] is on the quick back-up. This is his best distance and he’s a chance at each-way odds.
15 Character [$14] comes in fresh, which makes it tough.
Quite a long tail on this race for mine, I don’t give the rest much hope: 20 Dynasties [$19], 16 Kiss The Bride [$21], 14 Laure Me In [$21], 13 Aramayo [$51], 19 Bold Mac [$20], 17 Superium [$41], 18 Wild Chap [$91], 5 Berdibek [$34], 6 Desert Icon [$21]
Betting strategy
This is a tough race, but I would be having an each-way play on Jojo Was A Man at the price – he loves the distance. He does have to step up in class but has won off the quick back-up last prep.
Good luck!
Mornington Cup
The speed
Rebel Racer will lead from out wide, so the pace will be genuine. Right You Are and Vow And Declare will also be going forward.
Runner-by-runner
5 Hezashocka [$4.00] is a consistent horse outside of two big spike ratings… one was in the Mackinnon on Derby Day and one was last start. There are a few negatives here with the barrier and distance. I’m happy to risk him at the price.
3 Nonconformist [$5.50] was a terrific winner first-up at big odds in the Blamey. He was then caught wide in a solidly-run Australian Cup. He gets a cosy run from the barrier here and was second in the Caulfield Cup at this distance. Good chance.
6 Right You Are [$7.50] is an honest horse who returns the same figure most runs. He’s up in distance, maps well and about is his right price here.
1 Vow And Declare [$8.00] is racing honestly but has got the top weight here. I’m not sure he can improve enough with that to win.
9 Benaud [$13] hasn’t won a race since his debut win. He doesn’t seem to be going as well as last prep. Still, he has got some chance at odds.
13 Herman Hesse [$13] comes through the Yarra Valley Cup, where he ran okay. He’ll be fitter here and maps to get a good run. Rough chance.
7 Fancy Man [$15] put in a dramatically improved run last start in the Easter Cup. He’s third-up now and can hold that rating here. A chance at odds.
4 Gear Up [$17] has now had two runs back from the spell. He was well beaten last start in a high-quality Queen Elizabeth Stakes. I’d prefer him in something easier.
11 Swords Drawn [$18] is an honest horse who is going to get a good run on the map. Has got a chance at odds
12 Port Philip [$18] ran well second-up and now rises in distance off a 34 day break. Has a rough chance.
14 Yaphet [$18] is racing well and gets out in trip which looks to suit him. The wide barrier looks a concern. I’d want decent odds to back him.
15 Caboche [$19] walked in in lesser grade last start but could get a similar run here. He looks to be slight overs.
8 Aurora’s Symphony [$41] has been up a while. He ran well in the Adelaide Cup but then was badly beaten last start. Another that I’d want decent odds on.
10 Rebel Racer [$41] won the Adelaide Cup when left alone in front. Different setup here and I doubt he can repeat that.
2 Camorra [$61] isn’t going well enough to win this.
Betting strategy
Top pick Nonconformist
Best value Caboche
I’ve got Nonconformist on top. Looking at the prices however, I think the best value is a fair way down with Caboche. He was super last start and looks to get a good run here. He’s worth a play at the price for mine.
Good luck!
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