Fremantle v Collingwood
Friday, 8:10pm
Realbookie.com.au Markets
Fremantle 1.70
Collingwood 2.15
Fremantle -5.5 / Collingwood +5.5
What happened last week?
For the second week in a row, the Dockers had a lamentable time in front of goal, kicking 9.18 (last week was 4.15) but managed to beat the Saints by 17 points. The Saints led by 10 points midway through Q3 but the Dockers found 4 goals by strangling the Saints and got out to a 22-point lead late in the game. The game was played between the 2 arcs, just 98 Inside 50s total – 53-45 to Freo. Freo also won the Clearances 50-33 and Tackles 84-63 in good signs for Justin Longmuir. The Saints on the other hand are now 3-7, with serious issues to solve.
Collingwood managed to sneak home against the Crows by 4 points in a big MCG clash. The Pies got out to a 30-point lead during Q2 before the Crows got their game going with the lead back to 17 points at 3QT. The Crows kicked the first 3 goals of Q4 to hit the lead before a late goal to DeGoey got the Pies back in front. The Crows won the Inside 50s – 58-49, but were unable to convert that advantage into scores. The Pies won the Clearances 44-36, while the Contested Ball (146-143) and Tackles (68-38) were very even, like the scoreboard.
Team Changes:
📈 The Dockers lose some speed with Fredericks injured but gain some height and strength with Sean Darcy returning. Wagner also comes in with Voss dropped. Small Positive.
📉 Loads of changes at the Pies with injuries to Hoskin-Elliott, De Goey and McInnes, then Markov out for personal reasons and Finlay Macrae was dropped. They get back proven McCreery and Mihocek and then it’s Charlie Dean, Edward Allan and Wil Parker. Negative.
Head to Head:
Collingwood have won the last 3 meetings, with the most recent by 46 points in R18 last season. Collingwood also holds the recent edge in games in Perth, winning 3 of the last 4 contests.
What can we expect this week?
Since losing their first 3 games, the Pies have won 5, lost 1 and drawn the ANZAC Day clash with the Bombers. Collingwood have been one of the top travelling teams of the last few seasons so aren’t without a hope here.
The bookies have this one almost as a flip of the coin, opening the markets with the Dockers as 1.5 point favourites, it should be close. Injuries to key Magpies has pushed the line further to -5.5 so going with the home Dockers at this line.
Dockers -5.5
$5.25 SGM – Fremantle -6.5 / Jackson 20+ / Over 153.5
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Geelong v Greater Western Sydney
Saturday, 4:35pm
Realbookie.com.au Markets
Geelong 1.50
GWS 2.55
Geelong -12.5 / Giants +12.5
What happened last week?
The Cats went to Darwin to take on the Suns and managed to get completely stuffed, by 64 points. They kept it together until early in Q2 before the Suns kicked 6 in a row to trail by 33 points at HT. It was more of the same after HT, with the Suns kicking 15 goals to 9 in the second half in a high scoring game – 26.8.164 to 15.10.100. Contested Ball and Clearances were fairly even but the Suns got a lot more of the ball in general – 436 to 354, and turned that into Inside 50s 73-56.
The Giants went down to the Bulldogs by 27 points at ENGIE Stadium (Sydney Olympic Park) on a greasy day. They led at QT with their biggest lead being 9 points early in Q2 but then they were put to the sword, kicking just 4 goals in the last 3 quarters. The Bulldogs managed 8.22 for a total of 30 scoring shots to 13 (6.7) which was fairly emphatic. The Giants were smashed in Inside 50 62-41, Clearances 46-38 but they did win the Tackles 76-52. The Giants have now lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Team Changes:
📈 A super set of “ins” for Geelong with Hawkins, Mitch Duncan, De Koning and Jeremy Cameron all returning. Going out are Rohan, Guthrie, Parfitt and O’Connor. MASSIVE Positive.
📈 Plenty of changes at the Giants with Aleer, McMullin, Angwin and Peatling coming in. Out goes Wehr, Stone, Jones and Buckley. Positive.
Head to Head:
The Giants won the last meeting, back in R11 last season, by 7 points in Geelong. In the 5 seasons prior, they met 6 times, for 3 wins apiece. Interestingly, the Giants have won the last 3 meetings at GMHBA Stadium, by 7 points, 19 points (2021) and 4 points (2019).
What can we expect this week?
The Battle of the mid-season slumpers! Should be a great contest, but had marked it close to a coin flip before all of the big Geelong changes. We were on the right side of the Giants last week, picking the Bulldogs to cover. This week the line has moved from 10.5 to 12.5 and we like the Giants to cover the line, although this time they get the points start.
Giants +12.5
$5.25 SGM – Giants +11.5 / Toby Greene 20+