Collingwood v Western Bulldogs
Friday, 7:40pm
Collingwood 2.00
Western Bulldogs 1.80
Collingwood +2.5 / Western Bulldogs -2.5
What happened last week?
The Pies drew with the Dockers in Fremantle on Friday night in a very disappointing result for them. Just before HT the Dockers got out to a 15-point lead but then the Pies turned the screws kicking 5 goals to 0 in the Q3, taking a 16-point lead into the final change. They got to a 25-point lead midway through Q4 and then it was the Dockers turn to come back tying the game up with a couple of minutes to go which was the final score.
The Bulldogs were unable to hold the Swans out last Thursday night, going down by 14 points at Marvel Stadium. They led for stretches mostly in the first half, getting out to as much as a 12-point lead which was early in Q1. The Swans put their foot down during Q3 and got out to a 30-point lead midway through Q4. The Bulldogs hunted well, winning Contested Ball 138-10 and Clearances 38-33. They also won the Inside 50s 60-46 but were unable to convert those opportunities into scoreboard pressure – something that the good sides do in order to win the games.
Team Changes:
Head to Head:
Collingwood won the last meeting, R17 2023 by 12 points. Prior it was 2 easy wins to the Bulldogs and before that 4 wins in a row to the Pies.
What can we expect this week?
The line has moved from Collingwood -8.5 to +2.5 this week on the back of the Pies injuries. Feels like an over-correction and the Pies can bounce back especially with the Bulldogs losing their main target man in Naughtin.
Collingwood +2.5
$5.50 SGM – Collingwood +2.5 / Johnson 2+ goals / Hill 2+ goals
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Geelong v Richmond
Saturday, 7:30pm
Geelong 1.06
Richmond 9.00
Geelong -47.5 / Richmond +47.5
What happened last week?
The Cats were beaten at home by the Giants by 4 points in a Saturday arvo thriller. Geelong got the better of the Giants early, getting out to a 14-point Q1 lead. The Giants kicked 6 goals to 1 in Q2 to lead by 19 points at HT and then extended that lead during Q3 before 5 unanswered Geelong goals got the scores back to level. The Giants kicked a goal at the 22nd minute mark of Q4 which was to be the last score of the game. The Cats won the Inside 50s 57-42 with Contested Ball even (143-140) while the Giants won the Clearances 44-37 and Tackles 80-60.
Richmond put up a vastly improved effort for an “honorable” 12-point. loss to the Bombers in Dreamtime. They took the lead 4 times during the match but the Bombers always had the answers, often through cheap goals caused by sloppy Richmond defending. The Bombers had far more of the ball (400-354 disposals) which led to more Inside 50s (68-55). The Tigers upped their Stoppages game, winning the Clearances 41-31 and the Contested Ball was even (140-138).
Team Changes:
Head to Head:
Richmond won the last meeting by 4 goals, in R9 2023. Prior to this, Geelong had won the 3 previous meetings by 3 pts, 38 pts and 63 pts which were all since the Tigers beat the Cats for the 2020 Premiership. The two teams haven’t met in Geelong since 2017 when the Cats won by 14 points and then before that in 2012 with Cats winning that one by 10 points.
What can we expect this week?
The Cats should be winning but who would have expected them to drop their last 4 games. The line has been fairly solid all week around 8 goals which might be a little big for the home Cats to cover, especially if the Tigers can tidy up their leaking of easy goals.
Tigers +47.5
$4.75 SGM – Tigers +46.5 / Under 173.5 / Rohan 1+ goals