The NBA has grown to be one of the most popular sports leagues for Australian sports punters. If you are not already betting on the total “over/under” you’re missing out on one of the most popular bet types.
Betting on an NBA total is simply a wager on whether the total points scored between the two teams will be over or under the bookie’s line.
There are a few ways to find an edge when betting on NBA games. The most common way is to do extensive research and analysis. This can involve studying player and team statistics, watching game tape, and analysing the matchups.
Another way to find an edge is to develop a quantitative model. These models use data to try to predict what will happen in a game. They can be helpful, but they require expert skills and plenty of hours to develop.
So let’s improve our game immediately with something a little easier! Here are the 8 top tips on what to look out for when betting NBA totals.
Injuries and news
The NBA schedule of 82 games (plus up to 20 or more playoff games) is gruelling. We’re in the ‘load management’ era and it’s common for players to sit out games even when they’re healthy. Keep an eye on news reports including each team’s beat writers on twitter to be able to react quickly to breaking news. Basketball is a 5-on-5 sport so one key player missing can have a significant impact on the outcome of the game.
It’s also worth paying attention to what coaches and star players say in their press conferences and other media. This can give you an early insight into their focus for the next game, for example they may tell reporters that they’re playing at a pace that is too slow and will need to play quicker in their next game. More possessions normally means more points.
Scheduling
Tired players normally means less defence and more points. Examples of this:
- When both teams are playing their third game in four or five nights
- When one team might be towards the end of an extended road trip
Also, don’t forget… some teams may not actually be wanting to win games as they’re more concerned about getting better odds in the draft lottery
Home vs Road
Many teams have two very different profiles depending on whether they are in the familiar surrounds of their home stadium or on the road in a hostile environment. When looking at season-long or current form statistics, make sure you break it down to look at their record at home versus the road.
Tough watch
You may have heard the saying that ‘Life’s too short to be the under’. That’s because it can be death by a thousand cuts and you can always lose right up until the final buzzer. Overtime can be the ultimate killer. So it’s no surprise that punters want to see action rather than barrack for something to not happen. Punters have a strong tendency to back the over.
This can lead to there being some value going against the public and betting on the under.
Referees
There are quite a few websites that list the refereeing squad for the game and it’s worth looking at their stats because they can definitely have an impact on the total points scored – the Tim Donaghy scandal proved that. Refereeing involves subjective decisions and some referees are more likely to call fouls than others. Games where the refs tend to call fouls should encourage you to look at whether the over is a good bet, because free throws stop the clock and lead to points being scored. The other side of this scenario is that refs who are more reluctant to call fouls are likely to have lower scoring games.
Starstruck
Games that feature a host of All-Star players can lead to inflated lines because most of the betting public see the big names and assume that a lot of points will be scored. This is another factor that can lead to there being some value going against the public and betting on the under.
Party time
Teams that are visiting renowned party cities such as Miami, New York, Atlanta or LA may have players who enjoy the nightlife. This can lead to sloppy play and poor defence.
Up high
The elevation in Denver is well known and ‘mile high city’ is a bit of a giveaway. The Nuggets have often attempted to take advantage of this by playing a fast-paced style of play, although that doesn’t suit league MVP Nikola Jokic. It is also worth noting that Utah is 1.3km above sea level.
The best way to find an edge when betting NBA totals is to use a combination of research and analysis. This will give you the best chance of finding winning plays.
Our preview is brought to you by Champion Bets, established in 2006 to provide tips, analysis and education for Australian punters.
Their modellers study every statistic and every market on every game to bet across Head-to-head, Lines, Totals and Player props, by incorporating player ratings and up-to-the-minute data weather to maintain an edge on the market.
