The Track
It’s currently a Soft 7, with some rain forecast before the race. I will be an optimist and say we’ll be on a drying surface.
The Speed
Plenty of speed here, it should be fast. The full field makes it busy early. In The Congo with a nice draw can lead, with Lavish Girl and Lady of Honour up on the speed. Military Expert, Mr Mozart and Vilana will try to cross from out wide. Chain Of Lightning will be midfield on the fence.
Runner-by-runner
12 Light Infantry [$3.60] is a bit of an unknown, but I’ve got him just slightly below Chain Of Lightning on his overseas figures.
16 Chain Of Lightning [$4.80] ran a big figure in the Tristarc Stakes. I have her on top. The booking of Kah is a positive.
3 In The Congo [$9.00] is tackling a 300-metre rise in distance off what will be a hot tempo. He’s never run the distance so it will be tough for him.
5 I Wish I Win [$9.50] was a slight failure last start in the Toorak when going up in class. That’s a worry, but with genuine pace on up front he will be flying home late.
14 Hinged [$11] is dual nominated in Melbourne. He’s a Group 1 winner and will handle the distance.
4 Vilana [$16] won the Silver Eagle and will need to improve again to win this.
17 Gypsy Goddess [$16] will be a long way back and will need to improve from last prep.
13 Welwal [$17] is the horse causing all the controversy. He’s a bit of an unknown with Frankie Dettori on. I will risk him and have him marked at market price.
6 Mr Mozart [$17] will have to settle being wide in the trip, but has a number that can win. I just think the wide trip may be too much.
15 Fangirl [$18] is dual nominated in Melbourne. Has a Group 1 win over 1850 metres in the Vinery, so can handle a fast-run 1500.
A win from any of the rest would be surprising as their figures from their latest runs show they will need a big improvement: 20 Hope In Your Heart [$31], 10 Pinstriped [$31], 2 Converge [$41], 1 Overpass [$17], 8 Military Expert [$61], 18 Lady Of Honour [$61], 7 Hilal [$61], 19 Lavish Girl [$101], 9 Lightsaber [$201].
Betting strategy:
Top pick Chain Of Lightning
Value play Vilana
The couple of overseas runners are a query, but I’ll be marking them at market price and adjusting as required throughout the day. I have Chain Of Lighting on top but would want slightly better odds, so hopefully we get that on raceday. Vilana each-way (he’s around the $5 mark for the place at the moment) wouldn’t be a bad play either.
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