Ted Van Heemst Stakes
The speed
The pace looks to be above average. Marocchino should lead, with Notorious One and Trap for Fools looking to come across, and Bad Wolf pushing up from the fence. Dom To Shoot has an awkward draw. Steinem and Ironclad get nice positions in midfield.
Runner-by-runner
10 Steinem [$2.40] is one of many horses coming of the Northerly, and has the best SP profile of any of them.
4 Ironclad [$3.30] produced a peak figure when running second to Amelia’s Jewel in the Northerly Stakes. The question mark, of course, is whether he can replicate it here.
3 Marocchino [$5.50] should lead them. This could prove to be a decent advantage – keep an eye on the track pattern throughout the day to get an idea.
7 God Has Chosen [$12] doesn’t have the peak figures of the top horses to win this… he’ll want them to regress. He’s a chance if they’re a bit off.
5 Dom To Shoot [$12] will also need to improve again to beat the top horses.
I think the rest are probably a bit far off it and would need the top chances to have an off day: 1 Trap For Fools [$21], 8 Notorious One [$31], 6 Bad Wolf [$41], 2 Platoon [$41], 11 Chili Is Hot [$61], 12 Jadavi [$61], 9 Brother Paddy [$101].
Betting strategy
Top pick Steinem
Best value God Has Chosen
There’s a lot of horses backing up from the Northerly and looking at the SPs in that race, Steinem has the clear profile over the rest. Marocchino is coming out of a weaker race and while Ironclad ran a peak rating, I have questions whether he can do it again. I have Steinem on top but I wouldn’t be on at the current market price. My preference at the price is an each-way play on God Has Chosen… I can certainly see him running into the places.
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