1350m Group 3 3YO Vo Rogue Plate
Preview, top pick & value pick
The track
Currently a Soft 5. Potential for a few showers before race day so it may stay in that range. Expect it to play the usual Doomben way with some advantage to horses racing on-pace or at least with the ability to be within striking distance at the 400m. Rail is out 4 metres.
The map
Average tempo. Greylander to lead, Stroll either outside lead or on the fence, Ponca and Better Rain forward. Count Da Beans will be midfield and Ekaterina from the wide gate may be last.
Runner-by-runner
#4 Count Da Beans got too far back last start and JMac will need to push him midfield from the low draw. The step up to 1350m looks perfect.
#6 Stroll Scored a big win last start including beating Sunshine In Paris. Will be forward and should get a nice run.
#7 Ekaterina gets JKah on but might be coming from last so track pattern the key.
#2 Fashion Legend steps up in class but will run out a strong 1350m.
#3 Storm The Fortress is an unbeaten gelding but this is a step up in class. Big test for him.
#8 Ponca faces a big step up from a CL1 to a Group 3.
#9 Honkytonk Diva, #1 Better Rain and #5 Greylander all look outclassed.
Betting strategy
The value for me is STROLL. I have her second top-rated behind Count Da Beans and she has the running style that I like. Will be on speed and that should take luck out of the equation. Count Da Beans and Ekaterina will be coming hard late. Gollan won this last year with Tiger Heart and is a good chance to replicate that with Count Da Beans who looks like the step up to 1350m will suit. JMac will need to get him within 3 lengths of the lead at the 400m mark for him to have his best chance. Top rater but I just can’t get him as short as the $2.30 currently available.
Our Racing preview is brought to you by Champion Bets, established in 2006 to provide tips, analysis and education for Australian punters.
Their modellers study every statistic and every market on every game to bet across Head-to-head, Lines, Totals and Player props, by incorporating player ratings and up-to-the-minute data weather to maintain an edge on the market.
