Race 6: MAGIC MILLIONS RISING STARS 3YO & 4YO Fillies & Mares
The track
At this stage it’s a Good 4. What happens from here depends on today (Thursday). The BOM is predicting anywhere between 4-25mm (quite the range) for the Gold Coast, and then overcast conditions for the next 2 days. I am working on a Soft 5 to split the difference.
I think it should play on-speed, but with the ability to come off the fence from the 400m mark.
The speed
It’s above average here. Latakia should lead with Xtra Gear going forward from the wide gate. Olentia gets a nice run in the midfield running line.
Runner-by-runner
#9 Olentia [$1.80] is certainly a deserving favourite and the one they all have to beat.
#2 Bella Rouge [$6.50] will be back in the run, but I’m not too concerned about that – coming wide at the Gold Coast has been a plus of late.
#13 Latakia [$8.00] could be the hole in the market. Her ratings are a bit off the best in this race, but it is Craig Williams and Tony Gollan.
#3 Coco Rox [$10] was very disappointing last start. The camp was complaining the track was too firm.
#6 Amathuba [$12] is from a camp that’s in good form (Richard and Will Freedman), but she will need to improve again to win this.
#10 Hellavadancer [$21] has put in two below-par efforts at her last two starts and will need a big improvement
I don’t think the rest are up to winning this: 4 Vaccine [$21], 5 Very Intoxicating [$26], 11 Xtra Gear [$27], 7 Carartie [$46], 8 Ready For Better [$67], 12 Parisian Lady [$101].
Betting strategy
Top pick Olentia
There’s a bit of a question there… this is the first real test for Olentia, taking on some of the southern horses, but I think she’s up to it. She gets a nice run in transit and can get off the fence late. It will be whether you want to take odds-on or not, but she’s the deserving favourite for me.
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