Newmarket Handicap
The track
The rail is out to 4 metres. With this weather at the moment you can’t really say anything other than it’ll play quite even. Last week they were possibly getting off the fence a little, but I’m preparing for an even track.
The speed
The pace will be strong here, with leaders Snapper and Front Page taking it right up.
Runner-by-runner
3 I Wish I Win [$4.00] was terrific in the Lightning Stakes, coming from last and running the quickest sectionals of the day. He’ll get back here but will be getting home once again. The horse to beat.
15 In Secret [$4.00] won the Coolmore Stud down the straight in the Spring, albeit on a soft track, which is where she looks to excel. She hasn’t met market expectations in her two runs back this prep. She can improve here but not sure she can improve enough to justify this price. I’m happy to bet around her.
1 Private Eye [$8.00] won the Gilgai first-up down the straight at this distance in the Spring. He then ran second in The Everest and then repeated the Gilgai figure at his next start. He’s a terrific chance here if it can hit that number again.
9 Lofty Strike [$8.50] has been terrific in both runs back this prep. He’ll get back but will be charging late. Good chance at this price.
16 Buenos Noches [$10] ran on okay first-up and can improve here second-up. But to be truly competitive in this he would have to go to another level, which he may not have.
2 Mazu [$15] is drawn out in Barrier 16 and will race up on the pace. He’s a good consistent horse but with the weight he’ll have to go to a new level to win. Rough chance.
6 Bella Nipotina [$18] put in a good effort first-up in the Lightning and has solid record at 1200m. The inside barrier is just a slight concern in the straight.
11 Front Page [$19] is one of the leaders here but looks to lack the class for this level. Only a very rough chance.
13 Star Patrol [$19] ran well first-up and then had excuses second-up in the Oakleigh Plate. He has a good record down the straight and is a pretty good chance at these odds.
7 September Run [$26] ran well first-up in the Lightning. She’s drawn in the middle here so should be able to run on. A decent chance at the odds.
4 Roch ’N’ Horse [$26] is the defending champ in this race, but rises in weight and would have to go to a completely new level to contend here. Outside chance.
10 Chain Of Lightning [$26] ran well first-up then was slightly disappointing second-up in the Oakleigh Plate. She can improve here but would need to go to a completely new level to be a chance. A very rough chance.
5 Baller [$34] ran well in the Champions Sprint in the Spring at this track and distance. Not sure if he can run to that figure here. Another rough chance.
8 The Astrologist [$51] will show some pace here and is drawn out. Not sure if he has the class for this
14 Swats That [$61] gets the blinkers on for the first time but simply never seems to win.
12 Snapper [$71] is one of the leaders in the race but not really up to Group 1 level.
Betting strategy
Top pick I Wish I Win
Value bet Star Patrol
There’s little doubt in my mind who is the horse to beat. I’d want just a little better than $4 to back him. Further out, Star Patrol looks like a decent bet at the price given his record down the straight.
Coolmore Classic
The speed
The pace is fast here. Annavisto and Expat will lead with Mirra Vision, Hinged and Pride of Jenni behind the speed. Ruthless Dame, Toregene and Larkspur will be midfield.
Runner-by-runner
2 Annavisto [$5.00] was a dominant winner last start and doesn’t lose much going from Kah to Nash. She hasn’t won over 1400m however, and the pace will be on here.
14 Espiona [$8.50] is coming off a nice last-start win at Sandown, and being dual-nominated I half expected her to run in Melbourne again.
1 Hinged [$8.00] is third-up and a Group 1 winner over 1400m. She can sit off the speed and is a big danger here.
10 Sheeza Belter [$11] has been rating down this prep and will need to improve.
17 Toregene [$16] is unproven at this level and will need to step up to win.
9 Ruthless Dame [$7.50] just lost to Sunshine In Paris, and with natural improvement is not a bad chance at this price.
13 Yearning [$10] is a Group 1 winner over 1600 metres as a three-year-old. She’ll need luck from the back.
4 Mustang Valley [$18] is a kiwi horse that would need to improve to win this.
3 Hope In Your Heart [$7.50] hasn’t got the peak figures of others, so will need to improve to win.
6 Mirra Vision [$26] was a Group 1 weight-for-age placegetter over 1600m last prep in the Empire Rose. Will she be fit enough here second-up?
8 Expat [$17] has four wins from nine starts at the track and will be on the speed off a fast tempo.
I don’t think the rest are up to this: 16 More Prophets [$81], 18 Pride Of Jenni [$26], 12 Larkspur Run [$41], 7 Purplepay [$31], 15 Times Square [$41].
Betting strategy
Best bet Annavisto
Watching Annavisto win last start you wouldn’t know she hasn’t won over further than 1400m. She came back with a figure, so I will trust Price and Kent to have her ready for the 1500m at Group 1 level.
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