Winx Stakes
The track
It’s currently a Heavy 8, but with little rain predicted now it should move into the soft range.
Runner-by-runner
2 Zaaki [$4.40] is a nine-year-old now, the question has to be how much longer he can stay at the top.
13 Fangirl [$6.00] ran a second to Anamoe last year, but I’m not sure she wants a heavy track.
1 Think It Over [$8.50] is an eight-year-old now. He’s been good first-up over his last two preps. If he can reproduce those numbers he can go close.
7 Golden Mile [$11] had a second and fourth last prep. He’ll need to be better here to win. The heavy track is a question mark.
3 Mo’unga [$12] won this last year and has two career wins first-up. He’ll want it drier for his absolute best.
17 King Colorado [$12] is a three-year-old with some upside, but hasn’t won first-up for a few preps.
8 Osipenko [$14] is a four-year-old who who will appreciate further in a couple of runs.
16 Hinged [$15] has a win and two seconds first-up and the wet is a tick. Not a bad each-way play.
15 Princess Grace [$15] would prefer it drier.
12 Montefilia [$21] will at least handle the wet.
I don’t think the rest are much chance of winning this: 9 Lindermann [$13], 10 Major Beel [$18], 19 Attrition $21, 11 Duais [$34], 6 Communist [$41], 5 Francesco Guardi [$71], 14 Going Global [$91], 18 Navajo Peak [$101].
Betting strategy
Best bet Fangirl
Value plays Mo’unga, Montefilia
As always this is a very tough Group 1 with nearly all horses resuming, and I wouldn’t say this is grand final day for any of them – hence the questions why this is a Group 1!
Late market movement, track conditions and yard mail on the day will be vital in betting. I am working off a track in the Soft range. Fangirl for a win, and then Mo’unga and Montefilia each-way would be how I would play. But keep the outlay relatively small.
Good luck!
PB Lawrence Stakes
The track
It’s fine at the moment so it depends a lot on the rain. It’s pretty firm so if we don’t get much more rain it should be fine.
Speed
The pace is good here. Buffalo River, Edison, Deny Knowledge and Tuvalu will go forward, so there’s plenty of speed. Mr Brightside will also push forward, while Attrition will go back.
Runner-by-runner
1 Mr Brightside [$1.95] is the best horse in the race and resumes here. The map is a slight worry but he can probably roll forward. Certainly the horse to beat.
3 Tuvalu [$7.50] resumes here too. He trialled okay and has Shinn booked. He’s a good chance if fit.
15 Attrition [$9.00] is a promising horse on the way up. He ran second in the Australian Guineas in the autumn. He does look well found here however.
11 Pinstriped [$10] went out for a short break, but was racing well. He trialled nicely leading into this and can settle handier from a better draw. Good chance at odds.
4 Aegon [$17] resumes here with the blinkers on. Barrier 14 is a worry unless there’s a bias against the inside. Rough chance.
6 El Bodegon [$21] ran third, narrowly beaten in the Cox Plate, then didn’t really come up in the autumn. His trials were only fair but Lane has been booked. I’d want better odds.
8 King Magnus [$21] is a handicapper who has been racing well but resumes off a short break. He’s drawn wide here, it’s hard to see him figuring.
9 Pounding [$21] really improved through a long prep last time when he was stretched out in distance. He resumes here, but I would prefer back him in a handicap.
12 Uncle Bryn [$21] has his best runs with the speed on, and Zahra is a bonus. He trialled nicely and can run really well fresh.
18 Edison [$31] is another I’d prefer back at a handicap.
10 Buffalo River [$34] hasn’t won in a long time and prefers a wetter track these days.
17 Deny Knowledge [$41] improved last prep and could be the on-pacer here. She could fill a hole at big odds.
13 Forgot You [$81] has had 500+ days off, I’d prefer to see first.
I think the rest are outclassed here… 5 Western Empire [$17], 2 Regal Power [$101], 16 Chassis [$34].
Betting strategy
Top pick Mr Brightside
Best value Pinstriped, Uncle Bryn
Mr Brightside is certainly the horse to beat, though is obviously quite short. Given there’s so many early in their preps, a small play on a couple of outsiders might be a good idea. If the top chances aren’t wound right up, Pinstriped and Uncle Bryn could surprise.
Good luck!
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