Western Bulldogs v Brisbane
Friday, 7:40pm
RealBookie markets
Western Bulldogs 1.55
Brisbane 2.45
Western Bulldogs -9.5 / Brisbane +9.5
What happened last week?
The Bulldogs trailed the Magpies at each change but overrun them to win by 18 points in front of a big crowd at Marvel Stadium. The Pies lead got our to as much as 22 points but the Bulldogs were able to peg them back a couple of times to take the lead, in Q2 and then midway through Q4. The Bulldogs won Inside 50s 64-41, Clearances 55-38, Tackles 66-56 while Collingwood won the Contested Ball 145-139. Based on the numbers it was only a matter of time before the Bulldogs ran over the top of the Pies.
The Lions had a much needed Bye last week but before they went down to the Hawks by 25 points back in Round 11. The Hawks led for pretty much the whole game by as much as 35 points in a disappointing game from the Lions. The Stats were very even which highlights the improved efficiency of the Hawks. Contested Ball 117-117, Inside 50s 51-49 to the Hawks, Clearances 38-37 to the Hawks and Tackles was 62-60 to the Lions.
Team Changes:
📉 Interesting changes for the Bulldogs who lose Sam Darcy to suspension and James Harmes to injury. Libba is back in the side, with Buku Khamis. Small Negative.
📈 The Lions bring back Eric Hipwood and Brandon Starcevich for Brandon Ryan and Harry Sharp who are both dropped. Positive.
Head to Head:
In footy terms It’s been a while since these teams have met with the most recent back in R3 last season when the Bulldogs won by 14 points under the roof at Marvel. Prior to this, the Lions won by 41 points in R16, 2022 and before that it was a 1-point Bulldogs win in the 2021 Semi-Final.
What can we expect this week?
The Bulldogs get another Prime Time game and to give them credit, they are delivering most Friday nights. The Lions are 2.5 games out of the Final 8, so really can’t be dropping this one. Suspect that the Bulldogs turn up, again, and do enough to cover the line.
Bulldogs -9.5
$5.25 SGM – Bulldogs -9.5 / Garcia 1+ goal / Over 171.5
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Collingwood v Melbourne
Monday, 4:35pm
RealBookie markets
Collingwood 1.85
Melbourne 1.95
Collingwood -2.5 / Melbourne +2.5
What happened last week?
The Magpies led at each change but were overrun by the Bulldogs to go down by 18 points in front of a big crowd at Marvel Stadium. The Pies lead got our to as much as 22 points but the Bulldogs were able to peg them back a couple of times to take the lead, in Q2 and then midway through Q4. The Bulldogs won Inside 50s 64-41, Clearances 55-38, Tackles 66-56 while Collingwood won the Contested Ball 145-139. Based on the numbers it was only a matter of time before the Bulldogs ran over the top of the Pies.
The Demons got absolutely spanked by Freo in Alice Springs to the tune of 92 points. This was an old fashioned shellacking, one way traffic. The Dockers won everything – Disposals 444-366, Inside 50s 68-37, Clearances 48-23 and Contested Ball 138-96. It was too bad to be true.
Head to Head:
Collingwood won the last meeting by 7 points which was last year’s Qualifying Final. The Demons got the better of the Pies on King’s Birthday last season but Collingwood had won the 3 previous meetings by an average of 17 points.
What can we expect this week?
Both teams are coming off losses and you would think that Melbourne should bounce back but can they lift enough to beat the Pies? The line has moved 5 points since Monday, going from Melbourne -2.5 to Collingwood -2.5. Going to go with the line movement and think the Pies turn up for another big occasion game.
Collingwood -2.5
$5.25 SGM – Collingwood -1.5 / UNDER 165.5 / Lipinski 1+ goals