4 Scarlet Oak
Ten of these back up from the Group 2 Roses two weeks ago where she took it out. The Roses has produced 12 winners in this race. Tough draw from 15.
1 Molly Bloom
Caught wide last start and was only 2nd up – has this been the target? Shinn on board is a big tick at the moment.
9 Ahuriri
Part of the big Waller team for this race. 35 days off, comes through the SA Derby which produced WARMONGER. Back in distance.
11 Mare Of Mt Buller
Has been settling well back in the run. Came charging home last start with a very strong L200. Will need tempo.
5 Moonlight Magic
Quick back-up here after running 11L 2nd to WARMONGER 7 days ago. Will need to improve off that.
8 Miss Joelene
Started $61 in a Group 2 last start (The Roses) to finish 3rd.
14 Kind Words
Tough barrier with a few that will want to settle forward.
10 Good Banter
Was off 49 days going into last start – prepping for this? Kah is currently riding well. Two back won the Adrian Knox which has been a strong form race.
3 Amazonian Lass
Set the tempo for the field last start and some will be looking for her to do it again to put some pace in the race.
12 Our Gold Hope
Has been up a while, was 35 days into last start. Not sure she has much more improvement in her.
18 Firestorm
Out to 2200m for the first time. Not ruling her out at big odds.
17 Concello
Coming from a BM72 at Randwick and considering AMOKURA won last year coming from a Sunny Coast Class 1 – probably can’t put a complete line through it.
15 Gentileschi
Will have to turn around last start form to win this.
Betting Strategy:
Going with a two-bet bet play here. MOLLY BLOOM was wide and had a horrid run last start. Can improve. MAREE OF MT BULLER looks likely to be coming late and Eagle Farm will suit. Hopefully Berry can find one of the better lanes that are apparent at the moment.
$300k The Moreton Cup (1200m Group 2 SW+P)
Speed Map: ZARASTRO ensures a solid tempo, INSURRECTION gets its back, MAZU/JIGSAW close to the speed.
1 Jigsaw
Carried 4kg more than two subsequent stakes winners last start but this is a bit tougher with some questions to answer.
2 Mazu
Would be shorter if wet but is still capable of winning here on dry with the drop in grade. Doomben 10000 winner and Everest placegetter.
3 Vilana
MAZU meets better at weights for beating him two back (resumed as Gelding) but that was on Heavy. Meets ZARASTRO better at weights from last start but back to 1200m has to be a query.
4 The Big Goodbye
He’s going ok but needs a ratings peak in this class.
5 All That Pizzazz
He’s going ok but needs a ratings peak in this class.
6 Zarastro
Leader who is better suited here back to 1200m and is 4 from 5 at Eagle Farm.
7 Rocketing By
Isn’t going well enough.
8 Insurrection
No match for OPAL RIDGE last start but has improved sharply second up last two preps and can do so again here with the weight swing (was beaten under two lengths) and the inside draw IF the track is playing fair.
9 At Witz End
8yo that is in career best form, but this looks too tough.
10 What You Need
Threatened to be a star early on, then had a setback/tieback surgery and has run well 3 times since the year off including a solid effort without much luck in the G1 last start.
11 Nettuno
Needs to improve on recent racing.
14 Lekvarte
He’s won 4 of last 5 but first-up at 1200m in this grade is an ask.
15 Opal Ridge
Solid enough resuming win at Scone last start. Yet to win second up.
Betting Strategy:
I don’t have a lot between 2+3+6+8+10+15 so I will be looking for a value book with 2 or 3 runners.
My value order assuming a fair track:
8 INSURRECTION
6 ZARASTRO + 10 WHAT YOU NEED
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