Brisbane v St Kilda
Friday, 7:40pm
RealBookie Markets
Brisbane 1.13
St Kilda 6.00
Brisbane -35.5 / St Kilda +35.5
Team Changes:
📈 No change for the Lions, always Positive.
📉 Several changes for the Saints, losing Dougal Howard, Webster and Wanganeen-Milera to injury, with Membrey dropped. They bring in Cordy, Schoenmaker, Zak Jones and Sharman. Negative.
Head to Head:
Last season Brisbane “did the double” over the Saints, winning in R15 at Marvel Stadium (28 pts) and the Gabba in R24 (12 pts). Brisbane have won 6 of the last 7 meetings between the 2 teams with the Saints only victory in that time at Metricon Stadium during COVID.
What happened last week?
The Lions had a big win, 43 points over the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium. They led by 3 points at QT, and weren’t troubled after that as the Bulldogs were unable to kick 2 goals in a row at any stage during the game. The Lions strangled the Bulldogs in the first half, absolutely smashing them in literally every stat – Disposals, Contested Ball, Inside 50s and Clearances. Eric Hipwood might have turned his season around with an intense effort that culminated in 6 goals. The final stats that mattered, all in the Lions favour were Contested Ball 139-124, Inside 50s 64-45 and Clearances 50-32.
Somehow the Saints managed to beat the Suns by 3 points by kicking just 7 goals under the Marvel roof. They led from the first score of the game right through until the 21st minute of Q4 when the Suns goaled to go 3 points up, before Max King put the Saints in front again with the last score of the game. The Saints won all the key stats – Contested Ball 135-114, Clearances 35-25, Inside 50s 56-45 and Tackles 60-56.
What can we expect this week?
With the Lions in red hot form, It’s hard to see where the improvement will come from in the Saints to be able to get close to them. Ross will look to shut it down, but the Lions could have this one over early. The line has moved from -25.5 to -33.5 over the course of the week, we’re going with the Lions to cover that big line.
Brisbane -35.5
$6 SGM – Lions -35.5 / Bailey 2+ goal / Over 159.5
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Richmond v Hawthorn
Saturday, 4:35pm
RealBookie Markets
Richmond 2.55
St Kilda 1.50
Richmond +12.5 / Hawthorn -12.5
Team Changes:
📈 Some big “in’s” for the Tigers with Dusty coming back in after was managed last week and Tom Lynch returns for his first game since March. Who knows how fit he is but will take the best defender anyway. They lose Prestia and Samson Ryan through injury. Big Positive.
📉 The Hawks lose Ned Reeves to injury and have dropped Mitchell but get back Nick Watson and Lloyd Meek. Small Negative.
Head to Head:
The last meeting was Round 19 last season when the Tigers got up in a 1-point game after coming from 36 points down right on 3QT. Richmond have won 8 of the last 10 meetings. One of the other 2 matches was a draw in the last round of 2021 when neither team could make the finals, although it was Clarko’s last game as Coach of the Hawks.
What happened last week?
The Tigers had a cracking win (for them) in Adelaide by 8 points. They were in front by as much as 24 points midway through Q3 but the Crows fought back hard to give them some nervous moments. The Crows had a lot more of the ball (384-336) but the Tigers were more efficient winning the Inside 50s 52-46. The Tigers also won the Clearances 37-32 and the Tackles 61-55. Contested Ball was fairly even 133-130 to the Crows.
The Hawks also had a cracking win, over the Giants by 6 points in Tassie, making it 5 wins in their last 6 games. They were down by 19 points at HT through poor conversion but then kicked 6 goals to 2 in Q3 to lead by 3 points at 3QT. The final term was an arm wrestle with 6 lead changes. For the Stats, the Giants won Contested Ball 138-119 and Clearances 40-34. The Hawks won Inside 50s 52-49 and Tackles 66-57.
What can we expect this week?
With a sell-out expected for Dusty’s 300th game, this game should be an absolute cracker. The Hawks are playing well, the Tigers improving a little each week as they get experienced soldiers back from their horror injury run and it should be a very close game. The line has moved a couple of points this week to the Tigers and they get two goals head start which look the better option.
Richmond +12.5
$5 SGM – Richmond -12.5 / Lynch 2+ goals / Over 168.5
AFL Round 14: Weekend Best Bets
