Carlton v Geelong
Friday, 7:40pm
RealBookie Markets
Carlton 1.60
Geelong 2.35
Carlton -10.5 / Geelong +10.5
What happened last week?
Carlton are coming off the bye but prior had a confidence restoring 26-point win over the Bombers on King’s Birthday weekend when they led for more than 99% of game time. Their lead got out to 41 points midway through Q4 and it was a fairly clinical win. They won Contested Ball 135-120 and Clearances 39-33 but got smashed in Inside 50s 41-60 which showed just how efficient the Blues were going forward.
Geelong are also coming off the bye and were beaten by 30 points by the Swans the week prior. They led by 35 points midway through Q2 which meant it was an 11-goal turnaround to go down by 5 goals. The Cats got beaten in all departments – Disposals 375-315, Contested Ball 154-135, Clearances 43-30, Inside 50s 56-49.
Team Changes:
📈 The Blues bring back Orazio Fantasia with Jack Carroll dropped. Small positive.
📈 The Cats have made some major changes with Zach Tuohy, Oliver Henry, Patrick Dangerfield all coming in and out goes Stanley and Bruhn who are both injured and Neale is dropped. Big Positive.
Head to Head:
Geelong won by 13 points in a high-scoring MCG Twilight game on the ANZAC weekend last time these teams met. Carlton won the only meeting last season, by 8 points in Round 2, and prior to that Geelong had won 5 of the most recent 6 games, going back to 2018.
What can we expect this week?
With both teams coming off the bye we should see an energetic start with Carlton not wanting to get strangled early. Since the Cats win over Carlton in Round 7, they’ve beaten only Richmond but as they’re getting players back we should see some improved performances. They may not win here but the 10 point start looks tasty.
Geelong +10.5
$7 SGM – Geelong +9.5 / Under 171.5 / Henry 2+ goals
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Greater Western Sydney v Sydney
Saturday, 4:35pm
RealBookie Markets
GWS 2.95
Sydney 1.40
GWS +15.5 / Sydney -15.5
What happened last week?
The Giants were too good for Port, winning by 22 points after trailing by 16 points midway through Q2. The Giants won Disposals 388-313, Inside 50s 56-42, Contested Ball 133-114, while Clearances was even 34-33. It’s fair to say that Port was disappointing, continuing to promise a lot, but deliver not much.
Sydney had a 42-point win over the Crows after trailing by 23 points during Q2 with the Crows looking like they could take a big scalp. It wasn’t to be with the Swans kicking 13 of the next 16 goals in a real demolition job highlighted by Inside 50s 61-35, Clearances 52-31 and Contested Ball 159-123.
Team Changes:
📉 The Giants lose Taylor and Haynes to injury with Cadman dropped. Coming in are Lachie Ash, Peatling and debutant, Max Gruzewski who has been named at Centre Half Forward. Negative.
📈 The Swans have dropped Matt Roberts and have also brought in a debutant, Caiden Cleary. Positive.
Head to Head:
Last time they met, Sydney beat the Giants by 29 points, back in R8. The Swans started slowly but outscored the Giants by 12 goals to 5 after QT. Sydney also won 3 of the prior 4 matches by 11, 73 and 20 points with the Giants victory in that period by just 1 point (last season).
What can we expect this week?
The Swans sit 3 games clear on top of the ladder and another win over a close rival will send an even stronger message to opposition clubs that they are all playing for 2nd place. The line has moved from -11.5 to -15.5 this week and with the loss of two big defenders, it’s hard to see the Giants holding on and Sydney should cover this line.
Sydney -15.5
$5.50 SGM – Sydney -15.5 / UNDER 168.5 / Blakey 20+ disposals