$250k Ipswich Cup (2150m Listed)
10 Regal Lion
Last years winner. Fast tempo last start left it struggling over L800. Last 3 winners carried 54kg – he has 53.5kg
6 Warp Speed
Won an Open Hcp two back against some of these. This is tougher but if it runs to its level 2B could be in the finish.
1 Luncies
Coming in off G3 form finishing 5th. Has a 2nd at G3 level over similar distance and that was to WITHOUT A FIGHT.
2 Zoumon
Likely leader which is a plus at the tight Ipswich track. 2nd up should be better for the run last start. Weight?
14 Brookhaven
Hasn’t won past 1650m so has to be a big query at the distance.
5 Dune Forty Five
Good two back in the G3 over 2000. 3rd when stuck wide last start. Another down in the weight. May need luck in running but looks a good each-way chance.
12 Nikau Spur
7YO who comes in 5th up. Prefer others.
11 London Banker
Hasn’t been running well enough of late. 8YO – pass.
13 Red Wave
Will want others to regress or needs to find a length or two.
4 King Frankel
If he can find his form from Autumn 2023 puts him right in the finish. But that’s a big if.
3 Desert Icon
Getting out to over 2000m is a plus. One of the better roughies in the race. Weight is the question.
7 Port Philip
Can’t have.
9 Encoder
Drawn wide – will go back – have it marked longer.
Betting Strategy:
I am going with an each way chance in DUNE FORTY FIVE. May need some luck at some stage but is currently at odds to take that luck into the equation. Was good two back finishing 3rd in the Group 3 Chairman’s at Doomben. If it reproduces that form it will be there in the finish. 14 of the last 20 Ipswich Cup winners have carried 54kg or less.
$200k Eye Liner Stakes (1350m Listed)
Race Comment:
FANCIFY leads, JIGSAW likely races in the death, WATEGOS gets the gun run leaders back. PETRONIOUS / AT WITZ END / LOST IN TRANSIT have to decide what tactics to adopt in a race that suggests strong tempo (as usual in this race).
2. Jigsaw
Had every possible chance but strong VIC form line two back then again ran well here in QLD last start when placed in the Group 3 behind VILANA who placed as fav in Straddy. Barrier?
3. Blaze A Trail
Hard to line up. Didn’t have much luck when 3rd in this race last year but he’s had a year off since then. Should get tempo to suit IF he’s ready to firefirst-up.
4. Petronius
He may have had a setback but his run last start after 35 days was solid enough and he is capable at this distance and best is good enough.
5. Rocketing By
Capable at his best but is racing well below that at the moment. He was only beaten a coupla lengths by JIGSAW last start.
6. Sinawann
Prefer to wait until he shows a glimmer of his best form.
7. Wategos
Loses JOrman but drawn for every possible chance again from the paint tracking FANCIFY. Racing well and back in trip wont bother him.
9. At Witz End
8yo in career best form (beat YELLOW BRICK/FREEDOM RALLY 3B). Excuses last start when beaten a coupla lengths behind JIGSAW. He’s versatile and can be strong late if ridden cold.
10. Jetty
Prefer him over a mile and jury’s out if he’s ready to fire here second-up.
11. Military Gambler
Likes Ipswich but isn’t suited back from 1810m.
12. Lost In Transit
Went a bit better last start but he hasn’t come up this prep. Pressure here is against him.
14. Fancify
Consistent mare shooting for three in a row. Has to be hard to run down if she can find the front and handle the clockwise direction.
Form order:
7 WATEGOS
14 FANCIFY
2 JIGSAW + 3 BLAZE A TRAIL + 4 PETRONIUS +9 AT WITZ END
Betting Strategy:
WATEGOS deserves favouritism. This is a weak Eye Liner however $2.30 is too short. I think $3+ seems more fair but we’re used to underpriced early favourites these days. The value runners are PETRONIOUS and AT WITZ END.
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