$700k Tatts Tiara (1400m Group 1 F&M WFA)
1. Bella Nipotina
Clearly the class runner and the one they have to beat. Bad luck from the draw is the concern and loses her regular jockey Craig Williams.
2. Semana
Can’t back her to beat BELLA off the Straddy run but she had 63 days off before that. Right in this if she finds her neck 2nd in the Coolmore form. Improves 2Up.
3. Roots
Looking to go one better after her 2nd last year when she raced closer than usual (midfield). IF she can find that form here first-up she can be in the finish.
4. Opal Ridge
SP’d fav as a 3yo in this last year when finished 1L behind ROOTS. She had excuses last start but I am not sure that she is going quite as well this year.
5. Comrade Rosa
Wasn’t in the best part of the track in the Dane Ripper. She was beaten 2L in this last year. RMaloney has jumped ship to ride BELLA.
6. Bubble Rock
Import with a good record overseas. I liked the way she fought (ahead of 2 of these) after looking beaten at her Australian debut after a wide run. Obviously hard to line up, but with respect!
7. Vienna Princess
May strip fitter second-up after a fairly plain resuming run in Dane Ripper. Will need some luck from the paint for the out-of-form JByrne.
8. Cest Magique
She won the Dane Ripper (generally a main lead for this race, no hidden merit) and JMac sticks, but I am dubious that that is the form for this year and she goes up in weight.
9. Lekvarte
Excuses in inferior ground after missing away last start but I doubt her in this grade.
10. Ausbred Flirt
Solid 2nd to CEST MAGIQUE in the Dane Ripper but I doubt that’s the right form this year and she goes up in weight.
11. More Secrets
She hasn’t won for nearly 2 years and an out-of-form jockey to steer.
12. Zoes Promise
She drops in trip and should be near the speed, but I doubt her at this level.
13. Coco Jamboo
Found the right part of the track and ran on OK in Dane Ripper. Gets a weight swing over the quinella horses here but I doubt that’s the right form this year.
15. Roll On High
Aided by tack bias to beat STEFFI MAGNETICA/BASES LOADED two back. Can’t back her to beat BELLA from their Straddy clash. I am a fan of hers though.
16. Abounding
Had her chance in the Dane Ripper when beaten 1.8L though it’s suggested the track may’ve been too firm for her. True or not, she has to prove herself at this level.
17. Miss Joelene
Placed in the 2200m Oaks last start but now drops back to 1400m.
18. Banana Queen
Inferior ground in the Dane Ripper but did get beaten 13+L.
19. Willinga Beast
Only beaten 2.6L by BELLA in the TJ and back in form with a low rating/bunched finish Listed win last start.
Race Comment:
With 14 of the last 16 winners coming through the Stradbroke/Dane Ripper, and me being sceptical of the quality of this edition of the Dane Ripper, BELLA NIPOTINA is the “obvious” one to mark clear favourite. Bad luck from the draw with the new jockey is the concern, I actually don’t have her mapping too badly so hopefully she has her “naysayers” from the barrier and I can get better than the $2.60 (in a 93% market) I have priced her at. Can only hope.
They’ll run along as they always do in this race, and she is versatile enough to slot in where Ryan can find a spot. If she gets trapped wide, she could still prove too good (and who knows with Eagle Farm, it could be a blessing).
SEMANA can’t beat her off their Straddy clash but she is better than that. I expect her to run close to her Coolmore 2nd and prove a very realistic and hard to beat danger. As I type BELLA has been crunched into $2.20 and SEMANA is $14, the better value of the two.
ROOTS and BUBBLE ROCK bring queries for various reasons, I can speculate with both at big odds in case BELLA cops bad luck, and they are a must to be included in exotics. I can’t line BUBBLE ROCK up accurately, but I won’t be losing if she wins.
I’d leave the race with those four runners. So if the Dane Ripper form holds up I’m in trouble.
Clear Top Pick – BELLA NIPOTINA (Want $2.60+)
Best Value – SEMANA ($14)
Best Roughies – ROOTS & BUBBLE ROCK
$150k Marshall White Quality (Caulfield 2000m HCP)
Rain is predicted during the day, so have worked on the track being in the soft range. Pace looks genuine here with SMOKIN’ ROMANS, POUNDING, DASHING, ALHAMBRA LAD and RED SUN SENSATION all going forward.
1 SMOKIN’ ROMANS
4th up now out to 2000m. Last time he was 4th up he won the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes over 2000m. Has handled the wet in the past. Can improve off recent racing here.
2 POUNDING
Goes forward here. Was run down late last start. Is G1 placed this trip but wouldn’t want it too wet.
3 MILFORD
Ran well 2nd up then no luck last start at Flemington. Prefer not too wet.
4 DASHING
Another that goes forward. Prefer when he gets an easy lead and looks less likely here. Also prefer back slightly in trip.
5 BELTORO
Good over this trip 2 runs ago then had excuses last start. Maps to get a good run.
6 ALHAMBRA LAD
Resumes here, best form over further. Market will be a guide but assume he will be better for the run.
7 SCHABAU
Resumes here as a 9yo for a new camp. Over 3 years since he’s raced anywhere near his best. Happy to risk.
8 THROUGH IRISH EYES
Resumed off 679 days with a well beaten loss. Assume needs more racing.
9 FOUJITA SAN
Got well back off good pace, will need the inside off but will be closing late. Doesn’t want it too wet.
10 POLITICAL DEBATE
Got back before working home fairly late. Had had a tick over jumpout since. Can improve at 2nd run this way of going.
11 RED SUN SENSATION
Battled home ok last start. Now 4th up with 2nd run at distance and blinkers going back on. He should be fully fit.
12 HIT THE ROAD JACK
Former Kiwi having 1st OZ run for new camp. Hard to get a line on. Will assess to market price.
13 WYCLIF
Will get back and it’s a long while since he’s won. Would want decent odds to entertain.
14 WINEGLASS BAY
4th up here and has won 4th up his last 2 preps. Has the ratings scope to improve here.
15 TOURISTIC
Won OK last start but jumps out of Benchmark racing here. Can improve again here 3rd up.
Rated Order:
3 Milford
2 Pounding and 9 Foujita San
10 Political Debate
In a very wide open race POLITICAL DEBATE, WINEGLASS BAY and ALHAMBRA LAD are marginal overs on my rated prices. I can’t get the favourite FOUJITA SAN anywhere near as short as the market.arly favourites these days. The value runners are PETRONIOUS and AT WITZ END.
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