7:35pm Sunday June 30th
Melbourne Storm v Canberra Raiders
I have lost a bit of money betting against the Storm this year and I have to concede they manage to find a way to win games where the numbers suggest they were second best. Last week was another game where I felt some tough calls went against the Dolphins and the early injury to Bostock stuffed up the Dolphins outside defensive structures.
Credit to the Storm for manufacturing tries out of nothing (such as Hughes try before half time!), but that game really could have gone either way and we were little unlucky not to get up on the +4.5 bet on Dolphins.
The thing about betting based on a model and data, is that you cannot stop doing it because you have lost a few in a row betting against a team. The approach I use has yielded a healthy betting return in recent times, so I am not going to change my approach now.
After their capitulation last weekend to Wests, the Raiders have rightly been all but written off this weekend. Strange and Weakes looked totally out of their depth in the halves, something that wasn’t helped by the fact that the Raiders have alternated between three mediocre number 9 options all year. Throw in the multiple errors of
Rapana at 1 and it was no wonder Wests nearly piled on 50 points.
I am surprised that more changes have not been made, but Coach Stuart is clearly giving his Raiders a chance at redemption before wielding the axe.
The Raiders are still a very athletic side, and it is simply their footy IQ that lets them down. Strange needs to shift the ball early more often, instead of always taking 5-10 steps before ever passing the ball. Weakes is not a natural organiser, so I feel for him, but he needs to ensure his outside men are playing to some kind of structure.
In the middle, their experienced pack needs to get back to what they were doing early in the year – hitting hard in defence and playing error-free footy. If they do that, then I really do think they are a chance of springing an upset here.
Papenhuyzen was well off his best and will take some time to get back his confidence, and the Storm pack is not the machine it once was… and with a centre pairing of Anderson and Howarth, the Raiders centres are a chance of finding gaps if they are given good ball.
Predicted score
Storm 24
Raiders 18
Recommended Bet: Raiders +15.5
