Brisbane v Melbourne
Friday, 7:40pm
RealBookie Markets
Brisbane 1.14
Melbourne 5.75
Brisbane -33.5 / St Kilda +33.5
Team Changes:
📈 The Lions bring in Darragh Joyce and Will Ashcroft for Payne and
Brain. Small
positive.
📉 The Demons hand a debut to Andy Moniz-Wakefield
and get back Jake Lever with Taj Woewodin getting another chance. Out goes the
big loss of Salem to injury with Brown and Howes also out. Negative.
Head to Head:
Brisbane won the R5 meeting earlier this season by 18 points at the MCG. The
score flattered Melbourne who’d kicked 3 goals to 3QT before kicking 5 goals to
2 in Q4. Their previous meeting was a 1 point win to Melbourne while the
record since the start of 2021 reads Melbourne 5, Brisbane 3.
What happened last week?
Brisbane smacked Port by 79 points at the Adelaide Oval. Port kicked the first
3 goals of Q2 to get the margin back to 6 points but 7 goals before HT for the
Lions made the margin 45 points at the main break. The Lions didn’t stop there,
kicking 11 goals to 5 in the second half. It was a Stats smashing – Disposals
399-354, Contested Ball 151-111 (a MASSIVE result), Clearances 42-27 and Inside
50s a whopping 71-46.
The Demons limped home from a fast-finishing Kangaroos after leading by 39
points late in Q3. They didn’t score again for the game, while the Kangaroos
kicked the last 6 goals and ultimately went down by 3 points. The Demons lost
all the Stats but were out to a big enough lead that the Roos ran out of time
to peg them back. Disposals 357-286, Inside 50s 48-47, Clearances 42-35,
Contested Ball 143-135.
What can we expect this week?
Money has come thick and fast for the Lions this week with the line moving from
-19.5 to -33.5 since markets opened. The loss of Salem will really hurt the
Demons who already are running with a depleted midfield, while Will Ashcroft
strengthens the Lions through the middle in a double-whammy. Lever will be a
big help to the Demons defence but there’s only so many contests he can get to
as 3rd-man-up with the Lions having many avenues to goal. Lions to cover the
big line.
Brisbane
-33.5
$4.50 SGM – Lions -32.5 / Cameron 2+ goals / Over 168.5
===
Geelong v Essendon
Saturday, 7:30pm
RealBookie Markets
Geelong 2.05
Essendon 1.75
Geelong +3.5 / Essendon -3.5
Team Changes:
📉 Geelong handed
a debut to wingman Lawson Humphries, while dropping Oisin Mullin.
They bring in Shannon Neale for Tom Hawkins and Mitch Knevitt for Oli
Henry. Negative.
📈 The Bombers bring in Todd Goldstein and Jade
Gresham, who plays his 150th game. Out goes Jye Menzie and Nate Caddy. Positive.
Head to Head:
Geelong have won the last 6 meetings by an average of 52 points! That’s huge.
The last meeting was in Geelong in R18, 2023 with a 77-point margin to the
Cats.
What happened last week?
Geelong were very disappointing against Carlton, losing by 63 points on a big
Friday night at the MCG. The Cats kicked the last 3 goals of Q3 to trail by 27
points at 3QT but 9 goals to 3 in Q4 made it an absolutely pasting. Carlton won
Inside 50s 58-43, Clearances 50-39, Contested Ball 151-40 and the Tackle Count
80-66.
The Bombers held off West Coast for most of the first half before putting the
foot down late in Q2 to build a 24 point lead before HT. The Eagles came back
in Q3 to get within a goal but the Bombers were too strong and went on to win
by 30 points. The Bombers won the Disposals 400-292 but were inefficient with
ball in hand, losing the Inside 50s 56-54, lost the Clearances 44-35 and the
Contested Ball was 124-124.
What can we expect this week?
The recent Geelong record over the Bombers is hard to ignore – they’ve been
dominant. But, the Bombers won’t get a better chance to put them away in what
will be favourite son and former captain, Dyson Heppell’s 250th game. The line
has moved in the Bombers favour from +3.5 to -3.5 and they should be winning,
on the way to creating a 3-game buffer from 9th place on the ladder.
Essendon
-3.5
$5.25 SGM – Essendon -2.5 / Duncan 20+ disposals / Under 167.5
AFL Round 15: Weekend Best Bets
